(You can read and download the full pdf here)

“As any adult knows, a magician cannot produce a rabbit unless it is already in (or very near) his hat. In the same way, surprises in the business environment almost never emerge without warning. To understand the warnings, managers must be able to look at available evidence in alternative ways. Otherwise, they can be badly misled by apparently valid facts if that is all they see, or they do not interpret them in different ways.” (Wack, 1985b: 148)

Igor Ansoff was one of the first authors to put in the agenda…


Part 3: Three Schools of Scenario Planning

(You can read and download the full pdf here)

In 1987 William Huss and Edward Honton published the paper “Scenario Planning — What style should you use?”, in which they distinguish three types of scenario development approaches, namely ‘Intuitive Logics’, ‘Trend-Impact Analysis’ and ‘Cross-Impact Analysis’.

In 2002, Heijden, Bradfield, Burt, and Wright (Heijden et al., 2002: 128–129; Bradfield, et al.: 805) stated that the categorization presented above had two problems: the first one relates to the omission of the “La Prospective” methodology which it is for these authors a true school of Scenario Planning; the second one relates to the…


Part 2: The Key Dimensions of Scenarios

(You can read and download the full pdf here)

The word Scenario was originally associated to the performative arts like theatre and cinema (Ringland, 1998, Kleiner, 1996, Notten, 2002: 18).

Peter Schwartz (1991) also uses an analogy with the theatre to illustrate the reasons (and the utility) of building scenarios as a tool that allows us to improve our understanding about the challenges when we try to visualize and understand the future in an uncertain and changing environment. Schwartz invites us to be in the place of an actor:

“Imagine that you are a well-practiced actor in a repertory theater…


Part 1: A Blueprint of the History of Scenarios

(You can read and download the full pdf here)

The origin of the word scenario comes from the Latin word “scaen”, which means scene (Ringland, 1998), and it is traditionally related to the performative arts as the theatre and cinema (Notten, 2002: 18).

The use of scenarios at the planning level has its origin in the military strategic planning field being attributed to Herman Kahn the first reference to this concept as understood and used today (Heijden, et. al., 2002: 126–127).

Due to the contribution of several institutions and individual authors, scenarios and Scenario Planning as a support tool to…


PENSAR E AGIR NUM MUNDO INCERTO E EM ACELERAÇÃO

O mundo em que vivemos é cada vez mais marcado pela incerteza, complexidade, aceleração e convergência. Pressiona-nos (indivíduos, organizações e sociedade) a “funcionar”, a agir e a mantermos a nossa relevância, e em alguns casos a nossa própria existência, num ambiente cada vez mais … “desafiante”.

Estas características têm vindo a intensificar-se devido a vários movimentos, entre os quais destacamos dois:

· Aceleração. Aqui não estamos apenas a falar da aceleração tecnológica mas de um processo de aceleração da própria realidade (vd. …

Paulo Soeiro de Carvalho

Paulo Soeiro de Carvalho is a Professor, Researcher and expert in Strategic Foresight, Innovation and Entrepreneurship, with more than 20 years of experience.

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