SCENARIOS: LEARNING AND ACTING FROM THE FUTURE

Part 2: The Key Dimensions of Scenarios

(You can read and download the full pdf here)

The word Scenario was originally associated to the performative arts like theatre and cinema (Ringland, 1998, Kleiner, 1996, Notten, 2002: 18).

Peter Schwartz (1991) also uses an analogy with the theatre to illustrate the reasons (and the utility) of building scenarios as a tool that allows us to improve our understanding about the challenges when we try to visualize and understand the future in an uncertain and changing environment. Schwartz invites us to be in the place of an actor:

“Imagine that you are a well-practiced actor in a repertory theater. One week you come into work and your director hands you a copy of The Tempest. You learn your part and practice it thoroughly, preparing for the performance the following month. The next week, you walk in and the director hands you Rhinoceros, by Ionesco. A very different play from Shakespeare, but no matter: You learn those lines and practice that part. The following week, the director gives you a copy of Eugene O’Neill’s Long Days’s Journey into Night.

When the night of the performance finally comes, you walk up on the stage. The stage lights come on, and you are given your first line. But you don’t…