SCENARIOS: LEARNING AND ACTING FROM THE FUTURE

Part 1: A Blueprint of the History of Scenarios

(You can read and download the full pdf here)

The origin of the word scenario comes from the Latin word “scaen”, which means scene (Ringland, 1998), and it is traditionally related to the performative arts as the theatre and cinema (Notten, 2002: 18).

The use of scenarios at the planning level has its origin in the military strategic planning field being attributed to Herman Kahn the first reference to this concept as understood and used today (Heijden, et. al., 2002: 126–127).

Due to the contribution of several institutions and individual authors, scenarios and Scenario Planning as a support tool to decision making in uncertain contexts, have been used in a gradually broader and diversified way, having been developed multiple approaches and scenario techniques throughout the last four to five decades.

We identify some of the most important institutions and authors in the history of Scenario Planning since the post Second World War, including some connections and influences between some of those actors.