WEAK SIGNALS — EARLY WARNINGS OF WHAT IS COMING

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“As any adult knows, a magician cannot produce a rabbit unless it is already in (or very near) his hat. In the same way, surprises in the business environment almost never emerge without warning. To understand the warnings, managers must be able to look at available evidence in alternative ways. Otherwise, they can be badly misled by apparently valid facts if that is all they see, or they do not interpret them in different ways.” (Wack, 1985b: 148)

1. Weak Signals — Research Foundations

Igor Ansoff was one of the first authors to put in the agenda of strategic management the concepts of turbulence and uncertainty in the firm’s environment, defending the use of information of the type of Weak Signals as mechanisms or instruments capable to help anticipating future events.

Ansoff used the term “strategic surprises” to define these future events, which can assume the form of threats or opportunities (Ansoff, 1975, 1984).

The concern that Ansoff gave to the level of turbulence and the degree of uncertainty of the firm’s environment was highlighted when, in 1984, the author presented the evolution of business management throughout the twentieth century divided in four major periods (Ansoff, 1984…